ADB scales down ASEAN growth outlook

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ASEAN graphThe Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s major markets due partly to an expected economic slowdown in the Philippines following the devastation brought by Supertyphoon “Yolanda.”

In a report released on October 11, the ADB said the ASEAN-5 region, composed of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, would grow by 4.8 per cent in 2013. This was slower than the multilateral lender’s previous forecast of a 4.9-per cent expansion in 2013.

In 2014, the ADB said economic growth in the region would pick up to 5.2 per cent. This is also by 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous forecast.

“Southeast Asia’s growth forecast is tempered. Typhoon damage will moderate rapid growth in the Philippines before major reconstruction gets under way,” the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook supplement report.

The ADB said the current political unrest in Bangkok would also undermine Thailand’s growth “over the forecast horizon.”

Singapore is expected to buck the trend and post a more rapid expansion in 2013 in light of strong third-quarter growth supported by externally oriented sectors like exports.

“Growth forecasts for the rest of the subregion’s economies are generally in line with previous assumptions,” the ADB said.

The growth forecast for the ASEAN-5 region is slower than the projected 6-per cent expansion for the entire Developing Asia area, which includes sub-regions like Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands.

Next year, growth in Developing Asia is expected to accelerate to 6.2 per cent on the back of stronger economic conditions in the United States and other high-income countries, which will lead to stronger demand for Asian exports.

Last October, the ADB said the Philippine economy would grow by 7 percent this year, matching the high end of the government’s target range of 6 to 7 per cent. This forecast, however, was made before typhoon Yolanda made landfall. While the full extent of the typhoon’s damage is still being assessed, the government earlier said economic growth might slow to 4.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of the year from more than 7 per cent in the first three quarters of 2013.

 

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s major markets due partly to an expected economic slowdown in the Philippines following the devastation brought by Supertyphoon “Yolanda.” In a report released on October 11, the ADB said the ASEAN-5 region, composed of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, would grow by 4.8 per cent in 2013. This was slower than the multilateral lender’s previous forecast of a 4.9-per cent expansion in 2013. In 2014, the ADB said economic growth in the region would pick up to 5.2 per cent. This is also by 0.1 percentage...

Reading Time: 2 minutes

ASEAN graphThe Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s major markets due partly to an expected economic slowdown in the Philippines following the devastation brought by Supertyphoon “Yolanda.”

In a report released on October 11, the ADB said the ASEAN-5 region, composed of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, would grow by 4.8 per cent in 2013. This was slower than the multilateral lender’s previous forecast of a 4.9-per cent expansion in 2013.

In 2014, the ADB said economic growth in the region would pick up to 5.2 per cent. This is also by 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous forecast.

“Southeast Asia’s growth forecast is tempered. Typhoon damage will moderate rapid growth in the Philippines before major reconstruction gets under way,” the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook supplement report.

The ADB said the current political unrest in Bangkok would also undermine Thailand’s growth “over the forecast horizon.”

Singapore is expected to buck the trend and post a more rapid expansion in 2013 in light of strong third-quarter growth supported by externally oriented sectors like exports.

“Growth forecasts for the rest of the subregion’s economies are generally in line with previous assumptions,” the ADB said.

The growth forecast for the ASEAN-5 region is slower than the projected 6-per cent expansion for the entire Developing Asia area, which includes sub-regions like Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands.

Next year, growth in Developing Asia is expected to accelerate to 6.2 per cent on the back of stronger economic conditions in the United States and other high-income countries, which will lead to stronger demand for Asian exports.

Last October, the ADB said the Philippine economy would grow by 7 percent this year, matching the high end of the government’s target range of 6 to 7 per cent. This forecast, however, was made before typhoon Yolanda made landfall. While the full extent of the typhoon’s damage is still being assessed, the government earlier said economic growth might slow to 4.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of the year from more than 7 per cent in the first three quarters of 2013.

 

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