Costs for Thailand turmoil set at $13b

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Wat ArunThailand is expected to lose as much as 430 billion baht ($13 billion) in revenue in the first half of the year due to the prolonged political protests. The economy could also contract by 1 per cent this year if a new government is not installed by the middle of this year, warns the latest joint survey by the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

“Last December, we forecast that the economy would probably grow by 4.5 per cent. Now we forecast it will grow by only 2-3 per cent or an average of 2.5 per cent after the country has been caught in a political impasse,” said Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC’s vice-president for research. He said the latest projection is based on a functional government being established in the first half of 2014.

If a new government is not in place, it is highly likely that Thailand will experience an economic contraction of at least 1 per cent, he said. The study estimated the revenue loss to tourism and domestic consumption at about 250 billion baht, while investment has been hit by 50-100 billion baht.

The other lost revenue was expected to come from the government’s 2-trillion-baht infrastructure development plan, now frozen after a court ruling. Thanavath said the economy in the first quarter is forecast to shrink by 1 per cent due largely to the political crisis, with zero growth in exports.

However, the economy should recover in the third and fourth quarters of 2014 as the cancellation of the emergency decree boosts tourism and domestic consumption. The survey found that the North’s economy shrank 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of last year, with the Northeast contracting 2.1 per cent, the South down 0.8 per cent, the Central Region falling 1.3 per cent and Bangkok and surrounding provinces down 0.9 per cent. The contraction was mainly due to weakened domestic consumption, lower farm product prices and the impact of political turmoil and the declaration of the emergency decree.

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Thailand is expected to lose as much as 430 billion baht ($13 billion) in revenue in the first half of the year due to the prolonged political protests. The economy could also contract by 1 per cent this year if a new government is not installed by the middle of this year, warns the latest joint survey by the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Wat ArunThailand is expected to lose as much as 430 billion baht ($13 billion) in revenue in the first half of the year due to the prolonged political protests. The economy could also contract by 1 per cent this year if a new government is not installed by the middle of this year, warns the latest joint survey by the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

“Last December, we forecast that the economy would probably grow by 4.5 per cent. Now we forecast it will grow by only 2-3 per cent or an average of 2.5 per cent after the country has been caught in a political impasse,” said Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC’s vice-president for research. He said the latest projection is based on a functional government being established in the first half of 2014.

If a new government is not in place, it is highly likely that Thailand will experience an economic contraction of at least 1 per cent, he said. The study estimated the revenue loss to tourism and domestic consumption at about 250 billion baht, while investment has been hit by 50-100 billion baht.

The other lost revenue was expected to come from the government’s 2-trillion-baht infrastructure development plan, now frozen after a court ruling. Thanavath said the economy in the first quarter is forecast to shrink by 1 per cent due largely to the political crisis, with zero growth in exports.

However, the economy should recover in the third and fourth quarters of 2014 as the cancellation of the emergency decree boosts tourism and domestic consumption. The survey found that the North’s economy shrank 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of last year, with the Northeast contracting 2.1 per cent, the South down 0.8 per cent, the Central Region falling 1.3 per cent and Bangkok and surrounding provinces down 0.9 per cent. The contraction was mainly due to weakened domestic consumption, lower farm product prices and the impact of political turmoil and the declaration of the emergency decree.

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