Malaysia’s GDP could grow by 5.3% in 2014

KL at nightMalaysia’s economy is expected to expand 5.3 per cent in 2014 from an estimated 4.7 per cent this year, Standard Chartered said on December 4. External demand is expected to pick up next year, mitigating the expected slowdown in domestic demand, the bank argued.

Private consumption may moderate in 2014 due to higher inflation, subsidy cuts and high household leverage, said Standard Chartered in its 2014 global focus on “Rising East, Emerging West” report. Its growth forecast is in line with the government’s projection of 5.0-5.5 per cent GDP growth for next year.

“GDP growth was 4.5 per cent in nine months of 2013 and appears to be on track to meet our full-year forecast of 4.7 per cent,” the bank said.

The report said Malaysia’s labour market will remain healthy, supporting wage growth and consumption, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen, thanks to the pick-up in external demand.

“This should support wage growth in the sector, which accounts for about 17% of total employment and which saw a wage increase of about 7.6 per cent in nine months of this year, despite a softness in manufacturing,” said Standard Chartered. Domestic factors are likely to be more supportive of the ringgit next year, it added.

However, the local unit is expected to underperform in the first half of next year due to heavy bond inflows in recent years. Net external demand is expected to continue to improve in 2014 after subtracting an average 3.5 percentage point from quarterly year-on-year GDP growth between the first quarter of last year and third quarter of this year.

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Malaysia’s economy is expected to expand 5.3 per cent in 2014 from an estimated 4.7 per cent this year, Standard Chartered said on December 4. External demand is expected to pick up next year, mitigating the expected slowdown in domestic demand, the bank argued.

KL at nightMalaysia’s economy is expected to expand 5.3 per cent in 2014 from an estimated 4.7 per cent this year, Standard Chartered said on December 4. External demand is expected to pick up next year, mitigating the expected slowdown in domestic demand, the bank argued.

Private consumption may moderate in 2014 due to higher inflation, subsidy cuts and high household leverage, said Standard Chartered in its 2014 global focus on “Rising East, Emerging West” report. Its growth forecast is in line with the government’s projection of 5.0-5.5 per cent GDP growth for next year.

“GDP growth was 4.5 per cent in nine months of 2013 and appears to be on track to meet our full-year forecast of 4.7 per cent,” the bank said.

The report said Malaysia’s labour market will remain healthy, supporting wage growth and consumption, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen, thanks to the pick-up in external demand.

“This should support wage growth in the sector, which accounts for about 17% of total employment and which saw a wage increase of about 7.6 per cent in nine months of this year, despite a softness in manufacturing,” said Standard Chartered. Domestic factors are likely to be more supportive of the ringgit next year, it added.

However, the local unit is expected to underperform in the first half of next year due to heavy bond inflows in recent years. Net external demand is expected to continue to improve in 2014 after subtracting an average 3.5 percentage point from quarterly year-on-year GDP growth between the first quarter of last year and third quarter of this year.

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