Thailand set to emerge from recession

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Thai exportsAs export figures increase in Thailand, the country looks more likely to emerge from recession in the third quarter of 2013, but analysts warned of risks from still-fragile global demand.

Headwinds from flooding on factory production and pressures from capital outflows as the Federal Reserve winds down its monetary stimulus could also restrain a strong turnaround.

“It’s a surprise because global demand is not that good. I think exports for the rest of the year should not grow much although we may see orders in September or October for the New Year. Besides that, there are no clear positive factors for exports,” KGI Securities economist Pragrom Pathomboornm weas quoted as saying by Reuters.

Exports in August rose 3.9 per cent from a year earlier while imports fell 2.1 per cent, data from the Commerce Ministry showed on September 26.  Exports, equal to more than 60 per cent of the economy each year, rose just 1 per cent in the first eight months of 2013 from a year earlier.

Weakness in exports and slowing domestic demand pulled Thailand into a mild recession in the second quarter, as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy shrank on a quarterly basis in each of the first two quarters.

In July 2013, Thailand’s central bank slashed its export growth projection to 4 per cent from 7.5 per cent. It also cut its economic growth estimate to 4.2 from 5.1 per cent. It is expected to lower those forecasts again when it reviews them in October.

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Reading Time: 1 minute

As export figures increase in Thailand, the country looks more likely to emerge from recession in the third quarter of 2013, but analysts warned of risks from still-fragile global demand.

Reading Time: 1 minute

Thai exportsAs export figures increase in Thailand, the country looks more likely to emerge from recession in the third quarter of 2013, but analysts warned of risks from still-fragile global demand.

Headwinds from flooding on factory production and pressures from capital outflows as the Federal Reserve winds down its monetary stimulus could also restrain a strong turnaround.

“It’s a surprise because global demand is not that good. I think exports for the rest of the year should not grow much although we may see orders in September or October for the New Year. Besides that, there are no clear positive factors for exports,” KGI Securities economist Pragrom Pathomboornm weas quoted as saying by Reuters.

Exports in August rose 3.9 per cent from a year earlier while imports fell 2.1 per cent, data from the Commerce Ministry showed on September 26.  Exports, equal to more than 60 per cent of the economy each year, rose just 1 per cent in the first eight months of 2013 from a year earlier.

Weakness in exports and slowing domestic demand pulled Thailand into a mild recession in the second quarter, as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy shrank on a quarterly basis in each of the first two quarters.

In July 2013, Thailand’s central bank slashed its export growth projection to 4 per cent from 7.5 per cent. It also cut its economic growth estimate to 4.2 from 5.1 per cent. It is expected to lower those forecasts again when it reviews them in October.

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