Trump’s presidency carries significant economic risks for Asia-Pacific

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trump-with-microphoneDonald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election poses significant new risks for the Asia-Pacific region, notably China and other important trading partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, experts say.

Trump’s view on foreign trade has been protectionist at best, which means the new US administration could slap punitive tariffs on Chinese goods which would hurt Chinese exports and in the process could also trigger a trade war if Beijing retaliates, catching other Asian economies in the crossfire.

Anther big issue is that under Trump the Trans-Pacific Partnership likely won’t get off the ground which would bring troubles for pact members such as Vietnam as this uncertainty means less investment and weaker growth.

There are also issues with security relations in the region. Trump’s foreign policy programme entails the downsizing of the US’s military presence in the region, which poses a risk particularly for South Korea and Japan.

An investor survey conducted by Nomura Holdings came to the conclusion that after Mexico, Asia is most at risk under a Trump presidency.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines carry the highest risk, Nomura says, citing possible immigration restrictions. The US is host to 35 per cent of the total number of Filipinos working abroad, and Nomura estimates they account for about 31 per cent of total worker remittances, a key source of foreign inflows for the Philippine economy.

Trump’s pledge to bring jobs back to the US may also threaten the Philippines’ burgeoning business process outsourcing sector. The industry caters mostly to US companies and attracts revenue that may equal the size of total worker remittances – about nine per cent of GDP – over the next two years, according to Nomura.

Thailand’s trade with the US is also likely to suffer under Trump’s expected reversal of Barack Obama’s Asia pivot. The Thai Department of Trade Negotiations said the unexpected results of the US presidential election could have “a widespread economic impact” on the country.

The department’s Director-General Boonrit Kalayanamit said it looks like that the US will become more self-reliant in terms of its economy. Trump’s foreign policy, which dismisses the Trans-Pacific Partnership, will give rise to China as a more powerful economy within the region. It will also cost Thailand more to export products to the US as the new president is planning to raise tariffs, notes government-run National News Bureau of Thailand.

The US under Trump will also likely pay less attention to human rights and the restoration of democracy in Thailand, relieving pressure on its military regime, political scientists said.

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election poses significant new risks for the Asia-Pacific region, notably China and other important trading partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, experts say.

Reading Time: 2 minutes

trump-with-microphoneDonald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election poses significant new risks for the Asia-Pacific region, notably China and other important trading partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, experts say.

Trump’s view on foreign trade has been protectionist at best, which means the new US administration could slap punitive tariffs on Chinese goods which would hurt Chinese exports and in the process could also trigger a trade war if Beijing retaliates, catching other Asian economies in the crossfire.

Anther big issue is that under Trump the Trans-Pacific Partnership likely won’t get off the ground which would bring troubles for pact members such as Vietnam as this uncertainty means less investment and weaker growth.

There are also issues with security relations in the region. Trump’s foreign policy programme entails the downsizing of the US’s military presence in the region, which poses a risk particularly for South Korea and Japan.

An investor survey conducted by Nomura Holdings came to the conclusion that after Mexico, Asia is most at risk under a Trump presidency.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines carry the highest risk, Nomura says, citing possible immigration restrictions. The US is host to 35 per cent of the total number of Filipinos working abroad, and Nomura estimates they account for about 31 per cent of total worker remittances, a key source of foreign inflows for the Philippine economy.

Trump’s pledge to bring jobs back to the US may also threaten the Philippines’ burgeoning business process outsourcing sector. The industry caters mostly to US companies and attracts revenue that may equal the size of total worker remittances – about nine per cent of GDP – over the next two years, according to Nomura.

Thailand’s trade with the US is also likely to suffer under Trump’s expected reversal of Barack Obama’s Asia pivot. The Thai Department of Trade Negotiations said the unexpected results of the US presidential election could have “a widespread economic impact” on the country.

The department’s Director-General Boonrit Kalayanamit said it looks like that the US will become more self-reliant in terms of its economy. Trump’s foreign policy, which dismisses the Trans-Pacific Partnership, will give rise to China as a more powerful economy within the region. It will also cost Thailand more to export products to the US as the new president is planning to raise tariffs, notes government-run National News Bureau of Thailand.

The US under Trump will also likely pay less attention to human rights and the restoration of democracy in Thailand, relieving pressure on its military regime, political scientists said.

southeast-asia-risk-under-trump

 

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