Covid-19 fallout will cost the Philippines some $800 billion in coming decades
The Philippines will face a long-term cost burden of more than 41 trillion pesos ($802 billion) in the next decades from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the country’s National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said on September 25.
The agency’s socioeconomic planning secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said that the country in 2020 already lost 4.3 trillion pesos, and in the next ten years, the losses would accumulate.
Chua added that consumption and investment are likely to be lower in the next ten to forty years due to reduced demand in sectors that require social distancing, such as tourism, restaurants and public transportation. Consequently, tax revenues would be lower if businesses cannot operate at 100 per cent.
Less consumption, less investment returns, lower productivity
The head of the government agency responsible for economic development planning said the estimated total loss due to lower consumption alone would be 4.5 trillion pesos. Adding to that, the loss in private investment and returns in the same period would reach around 21.3 trillion pesos.
“We expect the economy to converge to the pre-pandemic growth path by the 10th year. While we will recover to the pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022 or early 2023, it will take several more years before we converge to our original growth path,” Chua said.
Another key finding of the NEDA study is that workers’ productivity would also be lower due to untimely death, illness and lack of face-to-face schooling.
“The impact on productivity is likely to be permanent over the next 40 years,” Chua said, noting that the resulting productivity loss in human capital investment and returns is estimated at 15.5 trillion pesos for the next 40 years.
The Philippines will face a long-term cost burden of more than 41 trillion pesos ($802 billion) in the next decades from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the country’s National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said on September 25. The agency’s socioeconomic planning secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said that the country in 2020 already lost 4.3 trillion pesos, and in the next ten years, the losses would accumulate. Chua added that consumption and investment are likely to be lower in the next ten to forty years due to reduced demand in sectors that require social distancing, such as tourism, restaurants...
The Philippines will face a long-term cost burden of more than 41 trillion pesos ($802 billion) in the next decades from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the country’s National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said on September 25.
The agency’s socioeconomic planning secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said that the country in 2020 already lost 4.3 trillion pesos, and in the next ten years, the losses would accumulate.
Chua added that consumption and investment are likely to be lower in the next ten to forty years due to reduced demand in sectors that require social distancing, such as tourism, restaurants and public transportation. Consequently, tax revenues would be lower if businesses cannot operate at 100 per cent.
Less consumption, less investment returns, lower productivity
The head of the government agency responsible for economic development planning said the estimated total loss due to lower consumption alone would be 4.5 trillion pesos. Adding to that, the loss in private investment and returns in the same period would reach around 21.3 trillion pesos.
“We expect the economy to converge to the pre-pandemic growth path by the 10th year. While we will recover to the pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022 or early 2023, it will take several more years before we converge to our original growth path,” Chua said.
Another key finding of the NEDA study is that workers’ productivity would also be lower due to untimely death, illness and lack of face-to-face schooling.
“The impact on productivity is likely to be permanent over the next 40 years,” Chua said, noting that the resulting productivity loss in human capital investment and returns is estimated at 15.5 trillion pesos for the next 40 years.
