High risk of terror in ASEAN: Crisis group

Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar and Indonesia are ranked high on a new list compiled by Aon Crisis Management, a UK-based firm specialising in risk management and terrorism insurance, a perception  that could influence investment decisions by foreign companies.

According to Aon, all four countries have a “high risk” of terrorism, as well as sabotage, riots, strikes, malicious damage, insurrection, rebellion and coup d’etats.

Thailand is the only ASEAN nation that also made it in Aon’s top 10 list of most terrorism-prone countries in the world, which are, in order, Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and Yemen. The results are similar to another list, the Global Terrorism Index, which, however, does not display 2012 data yet.

Cambodia and Malaysia have a “medium risk”, Aon says, while the risk in Vietnam, Laos is “low” and “negligible” in Brunei and Singapore.

The assessment in detail:

Thailand
Near daily attacks by separatist militants occur in Thailands southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat. However, despite sporadic pro- and anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok, there has been no return of sustained protest actions in the capital. Tensions over a border dispute with Cambodia persist but no substantial border clashes have occurred yet.

Philippines
A terrorism threat persists despite a peace deal with the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in 2012; Al-Qaeda linked groups like Abu Sayyaf are active in the south and the communist New Peoples Army operates countrywide. Protests over fuel prices, and anti-US or anti-China gatherings have occurred in Manila in response to specific events.

Indonesia
Although there has not been a major terrorist attack in Indonesia since 2009, security forces continue to regularly break-up cells – including in and around Jakarta – and conducted sustained counter-terrorism operations in Central Sulawesi in 2012. Protests over a wide range of local and national issues affected the country over the past year, in particular fuel costs and labour issues. In the eastern province of Papua, separatist violence continued to target mainly state security targets

Myanmar
Despite the ongoing political reform process and international backing for the government, parts of the country remain affected by communal violence (Rakhine) and ongoing conflict between the government and ethnic rebels (Kachin). The incidence of protests increased in 2012, with only sporadic government crackdowns, and the removal of a ban on protests in January 2013 reduces the risk of clashes around demonstrations.

Malaysia
Malaysia’s overall score remains unchanged. However, Aon has removed the terrorism peril for the country. Despite Philippines-based militants conducting at least one kidnapping in the eastern province of Sabah, there has been no terrorist plot recorded in peninsular Malaysia since 2010.

Cambodia
Minimal threat from terrorism, but increased levels of labour strikes and land protests, as well as ongoing risk of military clashes with Thailand around disputed border areas.

Laos
The overall risk level for Laos is low. There is a continuing risk of localised protests, which have turned violent in the past, and strikes. Following one of the highest rates of economic growth in ASEAN in 2012, economic development continues to cause local disputes and industrial action.

Vietnam
Minimal threat from terrorism or insurrection, but high levels of labour strikes and protests persist, as well as some small anti-Chinese demonstrations in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Singapore
Singapore remains one of the safest major cities in the world. Although the authorities have foiled terrorist plots in the city state since 2001 and Singaporean nationals have been detained overseas in connection with terrorist activities, the threat is minimal and there are no perils on the country.

Brunei
Minimal threat from terrorism, riots or insurrection. No perils in country.