Morgan Stanley cuts Thai growth forecast to 0%

sign-juntaAnalysts of US bank Morgan Stanley chopped the 2014 economic forecast for Thailand from 3 per cent to zero per cent. The 2015 forecast is has also ben cut from 4 per cent to 3 per cent.

Morgan Stanley cited faster deceleration of economic activities and weak recovery, on the base-case scenario that the election would be held in the next 12 months or the second quarter of 2015 at the latest.

The unfavourable political condition would affect tourism and domestic demand and the V-shape economic recovery is unlikely.

In the best case, which has a 10 per cent probability, the reform roadmap, constitutional amendments and referendum, as well as the election can be completed within 6 months.

In the worst case scenario, which has 40 per cent probability, the interim government can hold the election within 15 months amid widening political rift and slow recovery of the global economy.

The bank sees the Thai baht end the year at 36.14 per US dollar (32.80 as of May 29).

Meanwhile, the Thai commerce ministry has slashed its 2014 export target to only 3.5 per cent from 5 per cent, as the global economy faces a long and rocky road to recovery, particularly in China, which swallows up some 10 per cent of Thai shipments and is also a major source of demand for other countries’ products.

“The global economic recovery remains uncertain. In particular, the slowdown of China’s economy has created a domino effect on Thai shipments. This would affect Thailand’s exports to many countries, including ASEAN, our single largest overseas market,” Permanent Secretary Srirat Rastapana said on May 29.



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Analysts of US bank Morgan Stanley chopped the 2014 economic forecast for Thailand from 3 per cent to zero per cent. The 2015 forecast is has also ben cut from 4 per cent to 3 per cent. Morgan Stanley cited faster deceleration of economic activities and weak recovery, on the base-case scenario that the election would be held in the next 12 months or the second quarter of 2015 at the latest. The unfavourable political condition would affect tourism and domestic demand and the V-shape economic recovery is unlikely. In the best case, which has a 10 per cent probability,...

sign-juntaAnalysts of US bank Morgan Stanley chopped the 2014 economic forecast for Thailand from 3 per cent to zero per cent. The 2015 forecast is has also ben cut from 4 per cent to 3 per cent.

Morgan Stanley cited faster deceleration of economic activities and weak recovery, on the base-case scenario that the election would be held in the next 12 months or the second quarter of 2015 at the latest.

The unfavourable political condition would affect tourism and domestic demand and the V-shape economic recovery is unlikely.

In the best case, which has a 10 per cent probability, the reform roadmap, constitutional amendments and referendum, as well as the election can be completed within 6 months.

In the worst case scenario, which has 40 per cent probability, the interim government can hold the election within 15 months amid widening political rift and slow recovery of the global economy.

The bank sees the Thai baht end the year at 36.14 per US dollar (32.80 as of May 29).

Meanwhile, the Thai commerce ministry has slashed its 2014 export target to only 3.5 per cent from 5 per cent, as the global economy faces a long and rocky road to recovery, particularly in China, which swallows up some 10 per cent of Thai shipments and is also a major source of demand for other countries’ products.

“The global economic recovery remains uncertain. In particular, the slowdown of China’s economy has created a domino effect on Thai shipments. This would affect Thailand’s exports to many countries, including ASEAN, our single largest overseas market,” Permanent Secretary Srirat Rastapana said on May 29.



Support ASEAN news

Investvine has been a consistent voice in ASEAN news for more than a decade. From breaking news to exclusive interviews with key ASEAN leaders, we have brought you factual and engaging reports – the stories that matter, free of charge.

Like many news organisations, we are striving to survive in an age of reduced advertising and biased journalism. Our mission is to rise above today’s challenges and chart tomorrow’s world with clear, dependable reporting.

Support us now with a donation of your choosing. Your contribution will help us shine a light on important ASEAN stories, reach more people and lift the manifold voices of this dynamic, influential region.

$
Personal Info

Donation Total: $10.00